Fourth quarter is here, and the truckload market looks very different from a year ago. Capacity keeps leaving the road, diesel set records in September, and contract rates now run ahead of spot. Here is what it means for your freight.
Rates: Firmer Than Last Year, Choppy Week to Week
Craig Fuller of FreightWaves noted in mid-September that truckload spot rates excluding fuel were up 27% year over year. Cleveland Research put dry van spot rates, including fuel, about 40% higher in mid-September, and contract rates excluding fuel up 5% to 15%.
They jumped again in the week ending October 2. Truckstop and FTR showed broker-posted spot rates up for van, flatbed and refrigerated freight. The average rose 1% to $3.27 a mile, and dry van had its strongest gain for that week of the year since at least 2008. Van truck availability fell 5.9%.
Contract pricing has turned too. The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, produced with DAT, shows contract linehaul rising every month since April. By August it sat 22 cents above spot ($2.39 versus $2.17 per mile). U.S. Bank, citing ATA economist Bob Costello, said the recovery is nearly all due to excess capacity leaving the market, not a surge in freight.
The OOIDA Foundation’s September update, using Truckstop and FTR data, shows August’s dry van Market Demand Index fell 6.7% to 148.5, still 79% above a year earlier. Dry van spot rates, including fuel, fell 23 cents to $2.64 a mile.
Capacity: The Real Driver
Fuller has pointed to softer consumer freight since July. What is tightening the market is supply:
- Licensing: FMCSA’s Derek Barrs said the agency is removing around 1,000 improperly issued non-domiciled CDLs a month. Overdrive reports FMCSA called out 28 states, and states that cannot meet the March rule must pause new issuances.
- Vetting: Schneider cut its approved brokerage carriers from about 60,000 to about 14,000 to fight theft and fraud.
- Costs: record diesel is pushing smaller fleets to park trucks or exit.
A late-September FreightWaves SONAR update still showed tender rejections around 14%, and Fuller calls that data range-bound since July. Tight, not chaotic.
Cargo Theft and Fraud
Fewer reports have not meant smaller losses. Verisk CargoNet counted 677 supply-chain theft incidents in the U.S. and Canada in the second quarter, down 26% from a year earlier, while estimated losses rose to $304.6 million. Overhaul counted 605 reported U.S. cargo thefts that quarter, up 5% from the prior quarter, concentrated in California and Texas. CargoNet also flagged account takeovers and misdirected shipments, not just broken seals. FMCSA also posts alerts on fake government emails and registration scams. Confirming authority, insurance and who is picking up is how a broker protects the freight, and that is how we handle your loads.
Diesel: Records, Then Slight Relief
AAA’s national diesel average hit a record $6.505 per gallon on September 20. Truckstop and FTR put the average at $6.37 for the week ending October 2, down 12 cents. DAT said fuel was about 24% of the dry van spot rate in August, up from 21% in June.
An October 5 order directs Treasury to defer the 24.4-cent federal tax on dyed diesel used on highways through December 31, and to hold off on related penalties, if the legal findings are made. The tax is deferred, not forgiven, and state taxes still apply.
Flatbed, Open Deck and Oversize
Open deck cooled in August but remains well above last year. The OOIDA Foundation’s monthly update, using Truckstop and FTR data, put the flatbed Market Demand Index at 127.9, down 18.6% from July, a third straight drop. Flatbed freight was down for a fifth straight month, while available trucks rose 3.7%. Spot rates, including fuel, fell 27 cents to $3.33 a mile, and they fell in all six regions, and were still 41% above last August. The Southeast (204.4) and Northeast (184.8) were the tightest. For the week ending October 2, FTR said flatbed load postings dipped again while rates rose for a third week. MSU’s Jason Miller ties weak housing starts to soft flatbed demand.
For steel, machinery and oversize, trucks are easier to find than dry vans. Permits, escorts and route surveys still need extra lead time.
LTL and Partials
FreightWaves reports more LTL shippers shifting to shorter lanes to offset fuel. Partial truckload is a middle ground when freight is too big for LTL but short of a full trailer.
NMFC Docket 2026-2 proposes an overhaul of the mixed-commodity rule (Item 640). If approved, articles in different classes would be rated by the density of each handling unit, with exceptions for some commodities. NMFTA’s calendar sets the disposition bulletin for October 9 and a December 12, 2026 effective date. Accurate weights and dimensions will matter more, and we will help you review mixed shipments.
Q4 and Holiday Outlook
Fuller expects rejections to rise as holiday freight builds. Tight capacity can lift rates even when demand is soft, so plan Thanksgiving and year-end volume now.
Legal and Regulatory Watch
A few items worth knowing (general information, not legal advice):
- Carrier selection: In Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II (May 14, 2026), the Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the FAAAA does not block state claims that a broker negligently selected an unsafe carrier. That is what sound vetting, authority, insurance and safety checks are for.
- Broker transparency: FMCSA sent a supplemental records proposal to White House review on August 27. It is still a proposal.
- Chameleon carriers: The REVOKE Act (H.R. 10237), introduced September 2 by Reps. Taylor and Figures, would let DOT inactivate a USDOT number that lacks valid registration or a required update. It is in committee.
- English proficiency: FMCSA’s April 2026 policy places drivers who fail roadside English checks out of service. A proposed rule to codify that took comments through October 9.
- Licensing and registration: Secretary Sean Duffy’s non-domiciled CDL rule, in effect since March, limits those licenses to specific work visas and stays in force while a challenge argued September 15 is pending. On September 1 he said FMCSA had shut down 110 CDL schools tied to more than 5,000 drivers who could not speak English. DOT also launched Motus, which checks a government ID and photo before a company can register or manage a USDOT number. FMCSA is still smoothing that rollout. A broker who vets carriers helps shippers through it.
Tighter rules can trim capacity, and they also raise the bar for who hauls your freight.
What We Recommend for Shippers
- Book early: give us as much lead time as possible on November and December freight, especially around Thanksgiving.
- Review contract lanes: if tenders are getting rejected, a rate check now beats chasing spot trucks in December.
- Budget for fuel at current surcharge levels.
- Flatbed and oversize: send accurate dimensions, weights and photos up front, and allow extra time for permits and escorts.
- Stay flexible: wider pickup windows and quick loading make your freight more attractive to carriers.
- Ask how carriers are vetted and who is authorized to pick up. We will walk you through our process.
- Consider intermodal or partials where they fit. FreightWaves, citing SONAR, put domestic intermodal contract rates about 32% below truckload, including fuel.
Worth a Look on X
- Craig Fuller (@FreightAlley): Conditions are much better than last year despite record diesel, with linehaul spot rates up 27%.
- Craig Fuller (@FreightAlley): Expect tender rejections to climb as holiday seasonality takes over.
- FreightWaves (@FreightWaves): SONAR update on diesel outpacing spot rate gains, with rejections steady near 14%.
- FreightWaves (@FreightWaves): Jason Miller on why housing affordability is weighing on flatbed demand.
- Matthew Leffler, The Armchair Attorney (@ArmchairAtty): FMCSA’s tighter driver standards and how the Montgomery ruling affects brokers and shippers.
- Matthew Leffler (@ArmchairAtty): A plain-English explainer of the broker record-keeping rule and why transparency is back on the agenda.
- U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy (@SecDuffy): Emergency shutdowns of 110 CDL schools tied to drivers who could not speak English.
Let’s Plan Your Q4 Freight
Dry van, full or partial truckload, LTL, or open deck freight like steel, machinery and oversize loads, we will help you find reliable capacity at a fair price. Request a quote today.